反倾销调查“恐惧效应”存在性的判定研究——基于国外对华无缝钢管和彩涂板调查案的对比分析

Existence of“Fear Effect”from Antidumping Investigation:A Comparative Research on Seamless Steel Pipe and Painted Metal Cases Filed by Foreign Countries

反倾销调查是否会产生导致被控倾销国出口至第三方市场数量下降的所谓"恐惧效应"?运用统计和计量的手段回答这一问题的逻辑和方法是科学判定反倾销贸易效应的技术关键。本文以欧盟对华无缝钢管以及独联体国家对华彩涂板反倾销调查案件为例,在大量涉案贸易数据的基础上,遵循先遴选后排除的思路,运用虚拟变量模型、Granger因果关系检验和分位数回归等方法和手段,通过对比分析,在示范性地演示反倾销调查"恐惧效应"判定方法和程序从而为国际贸易活动中类似效应的检验提供可能评测范式的同时,回答了反倾销调查是否必然存在"恐惧效应"这一问题。

Will the antidumping （AD） investigation lead to the so- called ＂fear effect＂ ？ It is the technical crux to provide logic evidence to approach this issue through statistical and econometric methods. Based on large amounts of data related to the cases of EU＇ s AD investigation against China＇ s seamless steel pipe and CIS countries＇ AD investigation against China＇ s Painted Metal, this paper applies respectively the dummy variable model, Granger Test and quan- tile regression to illustrate the identification of the ＂fear effect＂ resulting from AD investigation. By the princile of ＂selecting firstly, and then excluding＂, this paper attempts to provide a possible evaluation paradigm for similar cases in international trade activities as well as to answer the primary question as raised in beginning of this paper.