产业园区转型改造的经济风险与收益评估——以上海市漕河泾开发区东区为例

The Assessment of Risk and Benefit during the Process of Industrial Park Transformation:A Case Study of the East Part of Shanghai Caohejing Development Zone

产业园区转型改造的过程是一项复杂、漫长的系统工程,改造过程中必然会涉及经济风险与收益的变化。如何有效评估产业园区转型改造项目的经济风险与收益是实现产业转型升级、保障城市可持续发展的关键技术之一。以上海市漕河泾开发区东区为例,从政府的视角出发,采用定性与定量相结合的方法对产业园区转型改造过程中的经济风险与收益做出评估,并结合燕式模型理论考虑相关不确定性因素的波动情况对转型改造过程中的临界状态进行修正,指出风险与收益的临界点可能后移至项目运行的远期周期内,进而提出针对不同阶段制定相应的规划与建设对策,保障项目的可持续发展。

The transformation of industrial park is a complicated and long-term project. It is inevitable that economic risk and benefit will change. Therefore, how to assess economic risk and benefit during the process of the transformation of industrial park is one of the key technologies to realize industrial upgrading and warrant the sustainable development of city. The paper takes the east part of Shanghai Caohejing Development Zone as an example,makes an assessment of economic risk and benefit by using the qualitative and quantitative methods, then makes corrections to the critical condition according to the fluctuation of relative uncertain factors. It finds out that the critical point of risk and benefit may move backward to further cycle of the project, and finally makes strategies according to different periods to warrant the sustainable development of the project.