海南岛近千年热带气旋灾害时空分布特征

Spatial-temporal Distribution Features of Tropical Cyclones in Hainan Island in the Recent Millennium

为了全面了解和认识海南岛历史热带气旋的活动规律,在海南岛984—1948年历史热带气旋灾情数据搜集整理的基础上,通过量化统计分析,并采用热带气旋灾害综合等级公式计算了海南岛历年热带气旋综合灾情D,并按照D的大小进行了分级。结果表明:7—9月为海南热带气旋灾害的高发期;热带气旋灾害多发地带集中在海南岛的北部和东北部,而在海南岛南部次之,西部记录最少;根据热带气旋灾害综合等级值,将海南岛111年有热带气旋灾情记录的年份进行了综合灾度的划分(D≤1.1轻灾;1.1<D<1.5,中灾;D≥1.5,重灾),其中重灾有13年、中灾有52年、轻灾有46年;热带气旋灾害存在多个多发期,如1678—1700年、1848—1864年、1887—1900年,但也不排除该时间段是记录比较详细的阶段。由于历史记录问题,有些时间段内的资料存在很大缺失,使得研究难免存在一定的偏差。但这些已有的历史记录,能被记录下来,从一定的程度上说明当时被记录的热带气旋的灾情已经产生了一定的社会影响,这些宝贵的资料也为人们了解海南岛长时间序列热带气旋灾害时空分布起到一定的借鉴作用。

To understand the history of typhoon in Hainan Island, the tropical cyclone disasters in Hainan Island were calculated by the statistical analysis and disaster grade formula based on history of tropical cyclone disaster data of 984-1948. The results showed that： July to September was the high incidence period of Hainan tropical cyclone disasters; tropical cyclone disaster-prone areas were mostly concentrated in the north and northeast of Hainan Island, the next were areas in the southern Hainan Island, and followed by areas in the western Hainan Island, which had the least record. The yearly tropical cyclone disaster records during the lllyears in Hainan Island were divided into comprehensive disaster degrees （≤ 1.1 light disaster, 1.1-1.5 middle disaster, ≥11.5 serious disaster）. According to the degrees, 13 years had serious disasters, 52 years had middle disasters and 46 years had light disasters. Tropical cyclone disaster had many multiple-occurrence phases, such as 1678-1700, 1848-1864 and 1887-1900, but this did not rule out that these time periods were recorded in detail. Due to the problem of historical record, some periods had a great lack of recorded information, which led to deviation inevitably. But the existing historical records, to some degree, indicated that the tropical cyclone disasters had certain social influence, and gave us valuable information about long time series of temporal and spatial distribution of tropical cyclone disasters in Hainan Island.