1982—2011年甘肃天水农业气象灾害对食用杏产量影响评估

Impact Evaluation of Agrometeorological Disasters on Apricot Yield in Gansu Tianshui During 1982—2011

为了有效防御农业气象灾害对天水食用杏产量形成的影响,采用统计学方法和风险原理提取了影响食用杏正常生长的主要致灾因子,构建了气象灾害风险评估模型。统计分析表明:主要致灾因子以杏树花前3月上旬干旱、花果期4月上中旬低温冻害、4月下旬阴雨寡照和5月少雨干旱天气对食用杏产量形成影响最为明显,与1982—1991年相比,1992—2001年天水食用杏10年平均气候产量动态相对偏差百分率减少29.9个百分点,2002—2011年减少7.8个百分点。气象灾害评估结果表明:评估灾害年16年,评估准确率94%。其中轻灾评估准确率50%,中灾88%,中大灾100%,大灾67%,轻灾、大灾评估准确率虽然较低,但错评年份中评估等级与实况等级仅相差一个等级,灾害评估的准确率比较高,灾害评估效果比较理想。

To effectively prevent the impact of agrometeorological disasters on the production of apricot in Tianshui, this study used the statistical method and risk principle to extract the main disaster factors and constructed the model of meteorological disaster risk assessment. The analysis showed that the main disaster factors that heavily affected the apricot production were： drought in early March before flowering, freezing in early and middle April, rainy and sunlight shortage in late July during fruit stage, less rainfall and drought in May. Compared with that of 1982--1991, the 10 year average of climate yield dynamic relative deviation decreased by 29.9% in 1992--2001 and decreased by 7.8% in 2002--2011. The meteorological disaster assessment showed that the disaster years were 16 years with an accuracy rate of 94%. The accuracy rate of mild, moderate, severe and the worst disaster was 50%, 88%, 100%, 67%, respectively. The accuracy rate of mild and the worst disaster were lower but the evaluation level varied only one level comparing with the real level. The disaster evaluation accuracy was high and the result was ideal.