“被城镇化”与“房价抑制”——基于省际面板数据城镇化与第三产业关系实证研究被引量：1

“Urbanized” and “House Price Repression”—— Empirical Study on the Relationship between Urbanization and the Tertiary Industry Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data

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摘要基于1991—2012年省级面板数据,通过面板协整分析并建立误差修正模型,对我国城镇化水平与第三产业发展间的相互关系进行实证分析。结果表明:城镇化水平与第三产业发展之间存在长期均衡关系,二者互相促进;而短期来看,城镇化水平与第三产业发展之间互为格兰杰原因,但是波动呈现反向关系,表明城镇化水平提升以及第三产业发展过程中可能存在"被城镇化"和"房价抑制"现象。 Based on inter-provincial panel data from 1991--2012, the panel co-integration analysis and ECM are adopted to make an empirical analysis between the urbanization level and the level of the tertiary industry development in China. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization level and the level of tertiary industry development and two of them promote each other. In the short term, although both of them are granger reason for each other, the fluctuations present the in- verse relationship between the urbanization level and the level of the tertiary industry development, which shows that the phenomenon of ＂urbanized＂ and ＂house price repression＂ may exist in the process of the ascension of urbanization and the tertiary industry development.

作者孙玉忠刘春成

机构地区中国农业大学经济管理学院

出处《科技与经济》 2015年第4期91-95,共5页 Science & Technology and Economy

基金黑龙江省教育厅项目--"黑龙江省资源型城市发展替代产业研究--以大庆市为例"(项目编号:11514142 项目负责人:杨俭)成果之一

关键词城镇化第三产业 ECM模型面板数据被城镇化房价抑制 urbanization the tertiary industry ECM panel data urbanized house price repression

分类号 F719 [经济管理—产业经济] F299.21 [经济管理—国民经济] F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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