中国工业碳排放效率及其影响因素的空间计量分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Efficiency of Industrial Carbon Emissions and its Influencing Factors

分析了中国工业碳排放效率的区域差异性以及空间自相关性,并用1998—2013年中国大陆30个省份的面板数据,建立空间面板数据模型,对工业碳排放效率的影响因素进行实证研究。研究结果表明:除少许年份外,中国及各地区的工业碳排放效率都呈现出不同程度的上升趋势且存在区域差异,中国省际工业碳排放效率在空间分布上表现出较强的正相关性和空间集聚特征,能源结构、能源强度、工业结构、能源价格水平和技术因素是影响中国工业碳排放效率的主要因素,对提高中国省际工业碳排放效率有正向作用,是空间格局演变的重要因素,且具有空间自相关性和空间溢出效应。

Based on distance algorithm which is the strong efficient frontier minimum, the paper applies three-stage DEA model to estimating the efficiency of industrial CO2 emissions in China＇s 30 provinces in 1998--2013. The advantage of this approach is that closer targets inputs and outputs of the inefficient units determine less demanding levels of operation to perform efficiently. On this ba- sis, the paper analyzes the efficiency of industrial carbon emissions regional differences and spatial autocorrelation, and learns from the gravity model to analyze the dynamic trajectory of the center of gravity of China＇s industrial carbon emissions efficiency; finally, it uses the spatial pane[ data of China＇s 30 provinces from 1998 to 2013, establishes the spatial panel data model, and affects the empirical re- search on the efficiency of China＇s industrial carbon emissions influence factors. The results show that, except those in a few years, the efficiency of industrial carbon emissions in China and the regions has emerged to rise to varying degrees and there are regional differ- ences; Chinese provincial industrial carbon emission efficiency on the spatial distribution showed a strong positive correlation and spa- tial agglomeration characteristics ; energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure, the level of energy prices and technology are the main factors affecting the efficiency of Chinese industrial carbon emissions.