IMF2001版政府财政统计是否有利于财政风险管理——一项基于世界经验的实证分析

Is IMF 2001 GFS Beneficial to the Fiscal Risk Management?——An Empirical Analysis Based on World Experience

当前世界范围内政府财政统计存在较大问题,本文对国际货币基金组织(简称IMF)出台的《政府财政统计手册2001》(简称GFS2001)的实施是否有利于财政风险的管理进行了验证。实证检验发现,GFS2001的实施能够显著改善各国财政赤字的披露,有效减少隐匿财政赤字的行为,有利于尽早发现财政运行中的问题。进一步研究发现,这一作用的发挥并不呈现线性特征,而是取决于它的实施程度。根据本文对GFS2001实施程度的量化标准,当GFS2001实施程度达到2.9464以上时,这一效果才会显现。本文的研究为我国及相关国家采用和继续实施GFS2001及类似的政府财政统计核算体系提供了一个严谨的经验证据。

There exist many problems in government finance statistics in the world, and this paper verifies whether the implementation of ＂The Manual of Government Finance Statistics 2001＂ （GFS2001） issued by IMF is conducive to fiscal risk management. The study finds that, the implementation of GFS2001 can significantly improve the disclosures of fiscal deficit. This indicates that the implementation of GFS2001 effectively reduces the hidden fiscal deficit behavior, and reduces fiscal risk. Further study finds that, this function is not showing linear characteristics, but depends on the degree of implementation. This study provides a rigorous empirical evidence for China and other countries in implementing GFS2001.