清远市手足口病流行趋势与短期气候因素的关系

Epidemic trend of HFMD and short-term climatic factors in Qingyuan City

目的探讨清远市手足口病发病与气象因素的关系,为手足口病防控提供科学依据。方法收集2009年1月1日—2013年12月31日清远市疾病监测信息报告管理系统报告的每日手足口病病例数,同时收集清远市同期每日气象资料,包括日平均风速、日平均气温、日累计降雨量、相对湿度和平均气压等,利用Poisson分布的广义相加模型拟合手足口病发病与气象因素的关系。结果 2009—2013年清远市共报告41 587例手足口病病例,日平均气温(≥27.20℃)、日平均风速(<1.49 m/s)、日累计降雨量(≥0.51 mm)、相对湿度和日平均气压(<991.73 k Pa)是手足口病发病的危险因素;日平均风速(≥1.49 m/s)和日平均气压(≥991.73 k Pa)是手足口病发病的保护因素。结论清远地区短期气候因素是手足口病发病的重要影响因素。

[Objective]To investigate the relationship between the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease（HFMD） and climatic factors in Qingyuan City, and provide a scientific basis for HFMD prevention and control. [Methods]The daily case number of HFMD reported in disease monitoring information report administrative system of Qingyuan and daily weather data from January 1, 2009-December 31, 2013were collected, including daily average wind speed, daily average temperature, day cumulative rainfall, relative humidity and average pressure. Generalized additive model of Poisson distribution was used to fit the relationship between HFMD and climatic factors.[Results]A total of 41 587 cases of HFMD were reported from 2009-2013 in Qingyuan City. Daily average temperature（ ≥27.20 ℃ ）, daily average wind speed（〈1.49 m/s）, daily cumulative rainfall（ ≥0.51 mm）, relative humidity and daily average pressure （〈991.73 KPa） were risk factors of HFMD incidence, and the average daily wind speed（ ≥ 1.49 m/s） and the daily average pressure （≥991.73 KPa） were protective factors of HFMD incidence. [Conclusion]Short-term climatic factors in Qingyuan City are important factors affecting HFMD incidence.