2015年7月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communiicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China,July 2015

目的评估2015年7月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往流行特点分析,预计7月全国总报告事件数和病例数较6月将有所减少。中东呼吸综合征及埃博拉出血热输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性极低。随着盛夏季节来临,登革热等虫媒传染病及霍乱、伤寒副伤寒等肠道传染病的流行强度会逐渐增强,部分省份可能出现本地暴发疫情。此外,高温中暑事件将有所增加,夏季饮食特征也将带来食物中毒/毒蕈中毒增多现象。结论预计2015年7月全国总报告事件数和病例数较6月将有所减少;需重点关注登革热、伤寒副伤寒、霍乱、埃博拉出血热、中东呼吸综合征、高温中暑和食物中毒对我国的影响。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in July 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel w as conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts of all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of public health emergencies and communicable diseases,it is predicted that the overall numbers of public health emergencies and communicable disease cases w ould be low er in July than in June,The transmission risks of M iddle East Respiratory Syndrome（ M ERS） and Ebola virus disease（ EVD） into China still exist,but the possibilities of large scale spread are very low. As the come of midsummer,the incidences of insect-borne infectious diseases,such as dengue fever,and enteric infectious diseases,such as cholera and typhoid fever / paratyphoid fever w ould increase,w hich might result in local outbreaks in some provinces. Besides,the incidence of heatstroke might also increase and dining pattern in summer might cause more food poisoning events. Conclusion It is predicted that the numbers of public health emergencies and communicable disease cases w ould be low er in July than in June in China; and it is necesary to pay close attention to the prevention and control of dengue fever,typhoid fever / paratyphoid fever,cholera,heatstroke and food poisoning and the risk of the transmission of EVD and M ERS to China.