2005-2013年中国大陆登革热疫情时空分布

Spatial-temporal distribution of dengue fever in the mainland of China,2005- 2013

目的分析2005 2013年中国大陆登革热疫情时空分布特征。方法基于2005 2013年中国大陆31个省、直辖市和自治区网络报告的登革热疫情数据和人口数据,建立地理信息数据库,导入Geo Da 1.2.0和Sa TScan9.3软件,进行全局、局部空间自相关分析和时空扫描聚类分析,确定登革热时空热点区域。结果 2005 2013年中国大陆地区报告的登革热总病例数为8107例,年均发病率为0.0682/10万。广东省和云南省的年均发病率明显高于其余省。广东省具有最高年均发病率,为0.5690/10万。2005 2013年中国大陆地区登革热疫情呈明显聚集性分布。2005、2007和2010 2012年全局型空间自相关系数Moran's I均具有统计学意义。局部自相关分析结果表明,2005、2007、2010和2011年广东省处于"高-高"区域;2005、2007和2010年,福建省处于"高-高"区域;2011年和2012年,海南省处于"高-高"区域;2006、2008、2009和2013年中国大陆所有地区均未处于"高-高"区域。时空扫描聚类分析表明,一级聚类区域位于除2005年和2011年外的广东省,2008年和2013年的广西、海南、贵州和云南省(自治区),2007年的福建省,2009年的浙江省。结论登革热疫情存在明显的时空聚集特征,主要集中在广东、福建和海南等沿海城市,尤其是广东省的空间聚集特征明显。各时空聚集区域将为我国制定登革热防控策略和评价措施效果提供参考。

Objective To understand the spatial temporal distribution of dengue fever epidemics in the mainland of China during 2005- 2013. Methods Geographic information database w as established by using the incidence data of dengue fever and demographic data reported in 27 provinces and 4 municipalities in China from 2005 to 2013. Global indication of spatial autocorrelation（ GISA）,local indication of spatial autocorrelation（ LISA）,and spatial-temporal clustering analysis w ere conducted w ith softw are Geo Da 1. 2. 0 and Sa TScan 9. 3 to determine high risk areas of dengue fever. Results A total of 8107 cases of dengue fever w as reported in China during 2005- 2013,the average annual incidence w as 0. 0682 / lakh. The incidences in Guangdong and Yunnan provinces w ere much higher than those in other provinces. The incidence w as highest in Guangdong province（ 0. 5690 / lakh）. The clustering of the distribution of dengue fever w as found. The annual GISA coefficient M oran＇s I w ere statistically different in 2005,2007 and during 2010- 2012.According to LISA analysis,the high-high area w as in Guangdong province in 2005,2007 and during 2010- 2011,the high-high area w as in Fujian province in 2005,2007 and 2010 and the high-high area w as in Hainan province during2011- 2012. No high-high areas w ere found in 2006,2008,2009 and 2013. Spatial temporal clustering analysis show ed that the most likely clustering w as in Guangdong province（ except 2005 and 2011）,Guangxi,Hainan,Guizhou and Yunnan provinces（ 2008 and 2013）,Fujian province（ 2007） and Zhejiang province（ 2009）. Conclusion Obvious spatial temporal clustering of dengue fever distribution w as found in the mainland of China. The clustering areas w ere mainly in Guangdong,Hainan and Fujian provinces,especially in Guangdong province.