印度财政支出规模与经济增长相关性实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Nexus between Fiscal Expenditure Size and Economic Growth in India

政府财政支出与经济增长的相关关系,孰为因果至今尚无定论。通过以1974-2014年印度政府财政支出与经济增长的历史数据为基础,对其相关关系进行协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,发现印度政府财政支出与经济增长无论是短期还是长期内存在稳定的弱正向协整关系及单向因果关系,财政支出是经济增长的格兰杰因,支持凯恩斯主义思想;反之则反是,不支持瓦格纳定律。

In recent years the causal nexus between government expenditure and economic growth has still been one of the debated issues.This study investigates the causal nexus between public expenditure and economic growth in India using co-integration approach and Granger causality test.The analysis was carried out over the period 1974-2014.The co-integration test result confirms the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in India.The empirical results based on the Granger approach indicates one-way causality which runs from public expenditure to economic growth in the short-run and long-run,supporting the Keynes thought of public expenditure and not vice versa,the result is not in line with the Wagner＇s law of public expenditure.