计及节能风险评估的月度随机规划调度模型

A stochastic programming monthly generation dispatching model considering energy-saving risk assessment

针对目前确定性的节能评估无法满足随机环境下节能调度节能降耗风险管理的需要,建立了计及节能风险评估的月度随机规划调度模型。考虑实际调度中机组出力与煤耗率具体的函数关系,建立了节能调度机组单位调度电量节能效益评估指标。在此基础上,考虑风电出力、负荷功率等不确定性因素对节能调度节能效益评估的影响,借鉴经济学中半绝对离差风险的概念,建立了节能调度节能风险评估指标。在随机规划理论框架内,建立了计及节能风险评估的月度调度模型。其中,为了兼顾所建模型求解效率和精度的双重需要,机组启停和出力变量优化粒度设定为日峰、腰、谷典型负荷状态。采用目标相对占优与内嵌Monte-carlo随机模拟技术的遗传算法求解所建模型。以某省级电网公司为例验证了上述工作的有效性。

A stochastic programming model for monthly power dispatch associated with the risk of energy conservation is proposed for dealing with an issue that the determined method of energy conservation can＇t be used for the risk management of energy conservation scheduling under uncertain environments. First of all, a benefit index of electricity conservation per unit for the power dispatch units with energy conservation is established on the specific math functional relationship between unit＇s power-dispatching and its coal consumption rate; the uncertain factors of random variation of load and wind power have significant effects on the benefit evaluation of electricity-conservation, and a risk index of electricity-conservation is established based on the concept of semi-absolute deviation from economy. Furthermore, a monthly power dispatch associated with the risk of energy conservation is developed in the framework of stochastic programming. In order to reach a balance of contradiction between model-solving＇s efficiency and accuracy, the unit commitment variables and unit power dispatch are respectively defined in a peak, a medium and a valley load. The proposed model is hiring a GA embedding with object relative dominant and Monte-Carlo simulation method. Finally, a provincial power corporation＇s power system is used for simulation, and it is verified that the proposed method is effective.