中国与中亚五国的畜产品贸易:基于引力模型的实证研究

Livestock Products Trade Between China and Five Central Asian Countries: An Empirical Study Based on Gravity Model

针对中国与中亚五国畜产品贸易现状分析,构建相应的引力模型,对中国与中亚五国的畜产品贸易情况进行定量分析。分析结果表明,经济发展水平和世界贸易组织成员对双边畜产品贸易具有促进作用,需求结构和地理距离对贸易有负向影响。在此基础上,对中国与中亚各国的贸易潜力进行测算,发现中国与塔吉克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦之间存在巨大畜产品贸易潜力,中国与乌兹别克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的畜产品贸易表现为"贸易过度",需要寻找新的贸易增长点。中国应充分发挥上海合作组织平台优势,加强同中亚各国畜产品贸易联系,调整现有畜产品贸易结构,将高技术附加值的畜产品作为出口重点,进一步扩大中国同中亚五国的畜产品贸易。

Based on the analysis of the current situation of livestock products trade between China and the Five Central Asian Countries, this paper used gravity model to analyze livestock products trade. The re- sults showed that the level of economic development and the World Trade Organization would have a posi- tive impact on the bilateral trade of livestock products; demand structure and geographical distance had a negative effect on the trade. On this basis, the trade potential between China and the Five Central Asian Countries was measured. The results showed that there was a huge livestock products trade potential be- tween China and Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan; the trade between China and Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz- stan performed ＂over trading＂ and needed to find a new strong point of export trade growth. Giving full play to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization platform, strengthening livestock products trade ties with Central Asian Countries, adjusting the existing livestock product trade structure, the high tech added value of live- stock products should be the key to export, to further expand the trade between China and the Five Central Asian Countries.