公众有限理性预期对我国货币政策有效性的影响分析

Analysis of the Impaction of People's Limited Rational Expectations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

本文利用行为经济学的估测偏见理论,结合我国货币政策实际效果对公众当前有限理性预期对货币政策有效性的影响进行分析解释,认为我国公众通货膨胀预期具有明显的有限理性特征,导致偏离政策目标。因而货币政策的制定和发布应尽量消除不确定性,加强与公众的沟通,树立公众信心,提高货币政策透明度。

Using the behavioral economics estimation bias theory and combining the actual effect of the monetary policy, this paper analyzes and explains the impaction of public limited rational expectations on the effectiveness of mon-etary policy, and believes that public inflation expectations have irrational characteristics which lead to policy objectives deviation. So the formulation of monetary policy should try to eliminate uncertainty, strengthen communication with the public, establish public confidence and improve the transparency of monetary policy. And finally this paper puts forward some policy recommendations.