外部冲击、通货紧缩与货币信贷政策

External Shocks, Deflationary and Monetary Policy

本文运用协整检验分析和脉冲响应分析等方法,发现国际大宗商品价格和国内CPI、PPI存在长期协整关系。国际大宗商品价格变动对国内物价水平亦形成短期冲击,对PPI冲击尤为强烈。货币供应量的变动对三类价格指数均存在正向影响,表明数量型的调控措施仍有效。因此,本文提出面对通货紧缩压力要适当增加货币供应量,并利用信贷政策引导经济发展"去资源化",同时注意管理通胀预期。

With Cointegration Analysis and Impulse Response Analysis and other methods,we find that the coin-tegration relationship of international commodity prices and domestic CPI, PPI is reliable. International commodity price movements on the domestic price level also form a short-term impact, particularly strong impact on the PPI. There is a positive impact of changes in the money supply on three price indexes. It means that the number of control measures indicate type still valid. Based on this,the paper presents that facing the deflationary pressures,it should be appropriate to increase the money supply and credit policy to guide the use of economic development“to the re-source”,while paying attention to the management of inflation expectations.