福建省种植业碳排放与产出关系研究

Relationship between carbon emissions and output in crop farming in Fujian Province

通过化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、农业灌溉和土地翻耕等6类碳源测算了1990-2013年福建省种植业的碳排放量,并对其进行特征分析,发现种植业碳排放与产出的变动呈现出相似的同向趋势。在此基础上,运用协整分析方法、向量自回归模型与脉冲响应函数来考察种植业碳排放与产出之间的长期关系和动态关系。研究表明:种植业碳排放及其产出之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且种植业产出变动对碳排放有显著影响,而种植业碳排放变动对产出作用不大,对自身的影响却很强烈。据此提出了促进福建省种植业发展与减排并行的政策建议:(1)充分发挥政府的引导、鼓励和支持作用,引导农户树立低碳意识;(2)通过科技减排,推进农业现代化;(3)因地制宜,促进农业产业结构低碳化转型;(4)优化农业能源消费结构,提高能源利用效率;(5)建立健全相关法律法规,切实保障农户的切身利益。

Carbon emissions in the crop farming from 1990 to 2013 in Fujian are calculated based on 6 carbon sources such as fertil- izers, pesticides, agricultural films, diesels, irrigation, and land tilling. And its characteristic analysis shows that carbon emissions in the crop farming change along with the output in the same direction. On that foundation, co-integration analysis, VAR model and impulse response functions are applied to examine the long-term and dynamic relationship between carbon emissions and output. The findings are as follows. In the crop farming there is a long-term, stable and balanced relationship between carbon emissions and out- put. Change of output has a significant impact on carbon emissions, while change of carbon emissions insignificantly affects output, hut remarkably influence its own. Accordingly, the following recommendations are presented to promote the development and emis- sions reduction of the crop fanning in Fujian in parallel. （ 1 ） Play the guidance, encouragement and support role of government full- y, and guide the farmers to establish low carbon consciousness. （ 2 ） Reduce carbon emissions through science and technology to pro- mote agricultural modernization. （ 3 ） Adjust measures to local conditions to promote low carbon transition in agricultural industrial structure.（4） Optimize agricultural structure of energy consumption, and improve energy utilization efficiency. （5） Establish and improve relevant laws and regulations to safeguard farmers＇ vital interests.