1954-2013年湖北省黄石市极值气温变化特征分析

Characteristics analysis of extreme temperature changes from 1954 to 2013 in Huangshi of Hubei province

利用黄石市气象台1954年1月1日至2013年12月31日共60a的地面观测资料,选取逐日的平均气温、最高气温和最低气温做为研究对象,采用气候趋势分析、相关分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验分析和小波分析等方法对黄石市极值气温变化特征进行分析,结果表明:(1)1954-2013黄石市年平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温呈波动上升的趋势,其中年平均气温和平均最低气温上升趋势显著,对于近60a黄石市年平均气温的升高,年平均最低气温的贡献是主要的;(2)近60a黄石市极端最高气温和极端最低气温均呈波动上升的趋势,其中极端最低气温上升趋势显著,1984-2013年极端最低气温的升高是造成近60年极端最低气温显著升高的主要原因;(3)近60a黄石市年最大日较差呈波动下降的趋势,但不显著,平均最低气温的上升速度明显大于平均最高气温的上升速度,极端最低气温的上升速度明显大于极端最高气温的上升速度,这造成了气温日较差的不断减小;(4)近60a黄石市气温(年平均气温、年最高\最低气温、极端最高\最低气温)的显著升高,与最高气温出现在20℃以上的天数增加和出现在20℃以下的天数减少有关,与最低气温出现在10℃以上的天数增加和出现在10℃以下的天数减少有关,其中T<0℃的高温日数和低温日数的显著减少以及20≤T<30℃的低温日数的显著增加贡献最大。

Based on the daily mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature from January lth, 1954 to 31th December 2013 in Huangshan, the changing characteristics of extreme temperature was studied by the climate trend analysis, correlation, Mann - Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis methods. The results show that： （1） the average annual average temperature, average maximum temperature and minimum temperature rise by fluctuation trend, in which the rising trend of annual average temperature and the average minimum temperature is significant and the contribution of annual mean minimum temperature account for the most for average temperatures rising nearly 60 years in Huangshi; trend, in whi （2） the extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature show upward ch the extreme minimum temperature rise significantly; （3） the largest diurnal range fluctuates declining, but not significantly, the rising speed of average minimum temperature is greater than that of average highest temperature, extreme minimum temperature rising speed is greater than that of extreme maximum temperature, which caused the decreases of temperature diurnal range; （4） the temperatures （annual average temperature, annual maximum, minimum temperature and extreme highest and lowest temperature） increased significantly, and the increasing number of days of the highest temperature above 20 ℃ associated with the reducing number of days below 20 ℃, and the increasing number of days of the lowest temperature above 10 ℃ associated with the reducing number of days below 10 ℃, in which the high temperature days and cold days （ T 〈 0 ℃） significant reduction and the significant increase of number of days of low temperature 20 ~〈T 〈 30 ℃ account for the largest contribution.