我国保障性住房供给预测研究

Research on Forecast of Indemnificatory Housing Supply in our Country

基于等维递补模型和熵值法的组合预测方法,对我国城镇人口及其人均建筑面积进行预测。在此基础上,对2013至2017年间我国保障房的供给量进行预测,就促进保障房市场健康发展提出政策建议。

Based on the forecasting method which combined GM （1, 1） model of equip-dimension grey filling vacancies and the entropy method, this paper predicts our country＇s urban population and per capita urban construction area. Through the test of precision, the result indicates that the original sample values are closely consistent with the inspection requirements and the result is ideal. Secondly, it predicts the amount of housing supply from 2013 to 2017. Finally, it puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the healthy development of affordable housing market.