突发事件网络舆情中网民群体行为演化的Agent建模与仿真研究

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Evolution of Netizen Crowd Behavior in Unexpected Events Public Opinion

【目的】发现突发事件网络舆情演变过程中的网民群体行为模型、路径、规则以及与突发事件网络舆情演变的关系。【方法】基于Agent建模技术,对突发事件中网络舆情演变过程中网民群体行为进行建模与仿真,包括概念模型、Agent属性、交互规则、博弈规则的设计,并基于Net Logo进行仿真与预测。【结果】结合典型突发事件网络舆情案例进行实证研究,验证本文提出的Agent模型的科学性。【局限】本文提出的交互规则、博弈规则需要更多同类事件的对比和优化。【结论】基于Agent的建模方法能够综合现实情境和网民群体的行为,进行突发事件网络舆情演变的建模、仿真,揭示突发事件网络舆情演变的规律。

[Objective] This paper is to analyze evolution path of network public opinion in the emergency management of unexpected events, and discover the relation between evolution of netizen crowd behavior and public opinion of unexpected events. [Methods] Design a Multi-Agent model which involving Agent properties, interaction and game rules among Agents, cross validation method between online and offline, and simulate this Multi-Agent model based on NetLogo system. [Results] With an empirical study, the feasibility of the Multi-Agent is verified. [Limitations] The interaction and game rules of Multi-Agents need to be optimized based on more empirical study in special domain. [Conclusions] Agent-Based Modeling can combine netizen crowd behavior and real environments for modeling and simulating, and can discover the inner rule of the public opinion evolution in the unexpected events.