俄罗斯对华政策：驱动力和决策过程

Russian Policy towards China:Drivers and Decision-making Process

分析俄对华政策需要把作为民族国家的"俄罗斯"分解成不同的行为体——拥有权力的参与者和各利益集团,从而准确理解其背后的复杂利益博弈。具体而言,俄罗斯可以在对华关系决策方面发挥关键影响的主要包括七类行为主体,即总统、文官集团、情报界、国企主管、经济寡头、军事—工业综合体的首席执行官集团和地区州长。以普京的个人偏好和观念为中心,俄罗斯的相关精英形成了复杂的对华决策互动机制。但整体而言,这些互动是混乱无序的,且不存在制度基础。这就解释了为什么在处理中国问题上俄罗斯缺乏一贯的战略。

When analyzing Russian policies towards China, it is imperative to decompose ＂Russia＂, as a national state, into different actors including participants with power and interest groups, in order to understand precisely complex game among different interests. Specifically, what can play a critical role in Russian diplomatic decisions towards China mainly includes seven kinds of actors, namely, president, civil official groups, the intelligence community, heads of state-owned enterprises, economic oligarchies, CEOs of military-industrial groups and governors. With Putin＇s personal preferences and concepts as the center, relevant Russian elites have formed a complex interaction mechanism for decisions towards China. Nevertheless, as a whole, all these interactions are chaotic, let alone any institutional basis. This explains why Russia lacks consistent strategies in dealing with its relations with china.