盐池县牧业发展及其影响因子分析

Animal Husbandry Development and Its Impact Factors in Yanchi County

牧业影响因子能够为科学调控牧业提供理论依据。研究以羊总数为盐池县牧业系统的特征变量,选取气候、农业、林草、经济方面的11个影响因子,用Mann-Kendall检验法和多元逐步回归法分析它们的变化趋势、影响大小及显著性。结果表明:(1)羊在盐池县家畜结构中占主体地位,且与家畜数量的变化过程一致;(2)羊总数在1984年前处于波动状态,1984年以后平稳上升,2002年发生突变并且极显著上升;(3)羊总数在突变之前主要受农业、林业和草地资源的影响;而突变之后,则主要受经济和农业的影响。农业发展和经济增长推动了盐池县牧业发展,但要警惕由此激发的过度增长。

To provide scientific regulation and management services for animal husbandry of Yanchi county in the farming-grazing transitional zone, total amount of sheep was taken as the variable of system characteristics of animal husbandry, and 11 main impact factors were selected from agriculture, forest, grass, economics and climate closely linked to animal husbandry system. Mann-Kendall test and multiple stepwise regression methods were used to analyze the trend of the total amount of sheep and effect of the impact factors. Sheep occupies the dominant position in the structure of livestock in Yanchi county, and is consistent with the change process of livestock numbers and the main feed resource types of Desert Steppe. The total amount of sheep was volatile in the years before 1984, and steadily increased after 1984; the mutation point occurred at 2002 and then significantly increased. The total amount of sheep was mainly influ- enced by the agricultural, forestry and grassland resources before 2002, after the mutation, mainly relied on the stock of resources such as economic capacity. The animal husbandry growth and ecological restoration in Yanchi were the result of multi-factors, such as agricultural development and economic ability en- hancement in recent 12 years. The development of animal husbandry in Yanchi should be changed from quantity to quality type to realize the balance of ecology and economy.