两税合并后外资对本土市场的依赖下降了吗?——来自中国工业部门的证据

Does the Reliance of Foreign Investment to Local Market Fall after the Merger of the Income Taxes?: An Evidence from Chinese Industrial Sector

中国沿海部分地区已经出现FDI撤出现象，FDI迅速逃离将会严重威胁宏观经济安全。文章测度了2001—2012年中国工业FDI市场依赖性指数，通过两税合并政策出台这样一次自然实验，采用倍差法分析了所得税优惠取消之后对工业FDI市场依赖程度的影响。研究发现：2001—2012年中国绝大多数工业FDI的市场依赖指数呈现“倒U型”演化趋势，2008年是明显的拐点；两税合并政策的实施取消了外资相对于内资的所得税优惠，造成外资的本土市场依赖指数年均下降0．0048％，时滞微乎其微且边际影响随时问越来越弱；内资规模较高的行业FDI市场依赖程度下降更快。两税合并政策保护了民族工业的发展，但也增加了外资撤离的风险，政府部门需实时监控，警惕外资大规模出逃。

FDI quickwithdrawal phenomenon has emerged in Chinese coastal areas,which result in huge losses to economic development. In this paper,we measured the 2001 ~ 2011 Chinese industrial sector FDI market dependence index,by introducing two tax merger policy as a natural experiment,and using method of difference in difference to analyze the effect of preferential income tax' cancellation to the market dependence index of FDI in Chinese industrial sector. We suggest the governmentto take real-time monitoring,and be wary of large-scale foreign capital fleeing from China.