宝岛还是荒岛:岛屿离岸金融中心的福利效应分析

Treasure Island or Desert Island: Welfare Effects: Analysis of Island Offshore Financial Centers

文章以全球9个典型岛屿离岸金融中心巴哈马、中国香港、巴巴多斯、新加坡、塞浦路斯、巴林、毛里求斯和马耳他为研究对象,使用时间跨度为12年的金融发展变量——协调证券资产调查(CPIS)和外部贷款的面板数据检验了离岸金融发展对岛屿离岸金融中心的福利效应。文章研究发现:岛屿离岸金融发展对岛屿经济体的人均GDP、财政收入和人均储蓄存款有显著的正向影响,对失业率的影响并不显著;在离岸金融发展变量对人均GDP和财政收入的影响中,外部贷款的贡献达到CPIS的数倍之多,表明来自于银行体系的直接贷款要比来自于资本市场的资产头寸在提升岛屿离岸金融中心的福利水平方面发挥了更大的作用。

This paper shed light on nine first-class Island Offshore Financial Centers( IOFCs) in the world such as Bahamas,Hong Kong,Singapore,Barbados etc. which have comprehensive representativeness for the study to analyze the welfare effects of offshore financial business on SIEs. Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey( CPIS) and External Loans were chosen as offshore financial development variables with a twelve years span of the 2001 ~ 2012 panel data. Results indicated that the IOFCs financial development has significant positive associations with per capita GDP,fiscal revenue and per capita deposit yet not positive on unemployment rate of Small Island Economies( SIEs); Tests also revealed that External Loans has stronger effects than CPIS,which demonstrated that direct loans from banking system are more capable to improve welfare effects of IOFCs than asset covers from capital markets.