基于灰色理论的黄土高填方地基沉降变形预测研究

Study on Settlement Deformation Prediction of Loess High Fill Foundation Based on Grey Theory

以某黄土高填方工程为研究对象,建立黄土高填方沉降变形的GM(1,1)预测模型,运用MATLAB编程程序并结合工程实际监测的数据,分别对黄土高填方沉降变形进行了短期、中期及长期预测。结果表明:GM(1,1)模型对于高填方地基沉降不仅在短期精度高,随着施工的进行对于中长期精度也可以保证,这既可缩短工期、降低工程成本,又能提高工作效率。

Taking a loess high fill project as study object, this paper established GM （1, 1 ） model predicting the settlement deformation thereof and, with Matlab program and actual monitoring data, made the short-, medium-, and long-term predictions. The results show that GM （1, 1） model, for high fill foundation settlement, has high accuracy in short-term prediction and, as the construction is going on, the accuracy in medium- and long-term prediction may be guaranteed as well, which may shorten the construction period, reduce the project cost and improve the work efficiency.