基于灰靶理论的中部六省经济发展的综合评价——“中部崛起战略”实施10周年前后比较研究

A Research on Comprehensive Evaluation of the Economic Development of China's Six Central Provinces Based on Grey Target Theory——A Comparative Study on the Implementation of the Central Development Project in China

本文采取10项重要经济指标,利用灰靶理论计算出2004年-2013年中部六省经济综合发展的靶心度,进而对2004年-2013年中部六省各省的经济发展状况进行分析和排序,并将2013年中部各省市的排序情况与2004年进行对比分析。研究结果显示:实施中部崛起战略10年间,河南省依托区位优势、人口优势等获得了较快的发展,从2004年的综合排名第2位上升到第1位。而山西省则是由于产业结构单一等原因从2004年综合排名第1,下降到2013年第6。另外,在中部崛起的不同期间,各个省份的排名和经济发展都有明显的地域性特征,即由于地域的差别为中部各省的经济发展提供了不同的潜在条件。

This article selects 10 main economic indicators and computes the grey target of economic development in the six central provinces based on the grey target theory. Then, it lines up the development of the six central provinces and undertakes a comparative study on the rank between 2004 and 2013. The study results show that Hehan got a rapid development and ranked from second in 2004 to first in 2013 due to its location and population advantages. Shanxi Prov- inces dropped to sixth in 2013 from the first in 2004 due to its single industrial structure. In the different period of the central development project, the rank and economic development of the six central provinces show different regional characteristics. That means the different regional characteristics provide different potentials for the economic development of the six central provinces.