重庆市城镇化发展与生态环境变化的关系研究

Co-integration Analysis of Relationship Between Urbanization Development and Ecological Environmental Change in Chongqing

在借鉴前人研究的基础上,选取影响城镇化发展的三项生态环境指标,以城镇化率作为城镇化水平的衡量指标,运用协整理论分析了重庆市1990—2014年城镇化发展与生态环境变化的关系。研究发现,重庆市城镇化发展与生态环境变化存在均衡关系。长期来看,城镇化水平的提升促进了生态环境的改善;但短期来看,污染物排放量影响了城镇化水平提升,生态环境抑制了城镇化发展,抑制作用具有滞后效应。妥善处理城镇化发展与生态环境的关系,需走包容、高效、可持续发展的新型城镇化道路。

According to the three indicators of ecological environment, this paper analyzed the impact of urbanization development on the basis of previous studies and a selection of urbanization index, and using cointegration theory to analyze the relation between Chongqing 1990- 2014 years of urbanization and ecological environment change. The results showed that it affected the existence of long - term equilibrium relationship of the development of Chongqing urbanization and ecological environment. From a long - term perspective, the level of urbanization promoted the improvement of ecological environment. But in the short term, pollutant emitted the impact of urbanization level, the ecological environment of inhibition of urbaniza- tion was development, the inhibition was lag effect. Properly handled the relationship between development of urbanization and ecological environment, new urbanization road should be to go high, inclusive, sustainable development.