我国能源安全与能源消费结构关联机制的系统动力学建模与仿真

System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation on the Associated Mechanism of Energy Security and Energy Consumption Structure in China

我国已经进入工业化发展阶段,能源安全的维护与能源消费结构的优化,成为两个亟待解决的课题。文章在对能源安全和能源消费结构发展现状分析的基础上,应用系统动力学理论和方法,对我国能源安全和能源消费结构的关联机制进行了模拟和分析。最后得出结论:改善能源消费结构对能源消费量有决定性的影响,进而影响能源安全;从能源供给角度来降低能源缺口,提高能源安全度,同时影响能源强度进而对各种能源的消费量产生作用,以达到改善能源结构的目的。

China has entered the development stage of industrialization,the maintenance of energy security and the optimization of energy consumption structure become the two issues to be solved urgently. Based on the analysis of current situation ofthe development of energy security and energy consumption structure,the paper applies system dynamics theory and methodto simulate and analyze the associated mechanism of China＇s energy security and energy consumption structure. Finally,thepaper comes to conclusions： Improving energy consumption structure has a decisive impact on energy consumption,and thenaffects energy security;Reducing energy gap and increasing energy security from the perspective of energy supply have impacts on energy intensity,and then affect all kinds of energy consumption,so as to achieve the objective of improving energy structure.