人民币国际化进程中的金融风险预警研究

A Research on the Early Warning of Chinese Financial Risk in the Process of RMB Internationalization

文章首先对人民币国际化进程中的金融风险进行识别,在此基础上构建出人民币国际化进程中的金融风险预警指标体系,共六大类24个预警指标。通过研究1995-2014年的经济数据,基于BP人工神经网络模型建立了人民币国际化进程中的金融风险预警模型,并根据2014年的经济数据对2015年的金融安全运行态势进行了预测。预测结果表明我国2015年整体态势处于基本安全状态,其中汇率波动风险预警子系统、国际环境风险预警子系统和资产价格波动风险预警子系统处于警戒状态,表明对我国金融稳定运行有一定的影响。

This article identifies risks during the process of RMB internationalization,and further develops financial riskearly warning index system for those risks. This index system consists of 24 different indices,falling into 6 categories. Webuild this warning system based on BP artificial neural network model and incorporate insight of historical economical datafrom 1995 to 2014. We then forecast financial stability for 2015 using data from 2014. Our forecast indicates that China is experiencing a stable situation as a whole,whereas the fluctuation in exchange rate risk warning subsystem,international environmental risk warning subsystem and asset price volatility risk warning subsystem show alarming results,which are a sign ofnegative impact on China＇s macro-economy.