摘要
基于1985—2012年中国大陆31个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据,采用HP滤波获得经济增长和产业结构变动的波动序列,使用面板向量自回归模型,研究产业结构变动与经济波动之间的动态关系。主要结论:产业结构合理化显示出逆周期性,产业结构合理化对于经济波动具有熨平效果;产业结构高度化则呈现出顺周期性,即产业结构高度化冲击是经济波动的一个重要来源。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1985 to 2012,the paper gets the sequence of eco-nomic fluctuations and industrial structure change from HP filter. Then by using panel vector autoregressive model,the paper discusses the dynamic relationship between the industrial structure change and the economic fluctuations. Main conclusions are as follows：the rationalization of industrial structure is counter- cyclical,and will flatten the economic fluctuations to some extent; the optimization of industrial structure is pro-cyclical, and it is an important source of economic fluctuations.
出处
《广西财经学院学报》
2015年第4期22-29,共8页
Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics
关键词
经济波动
产业结构合理化
产业结构高度化
动态关系
economic fluctuation
the rationalization of industrial structure
the optimization shock of industrial structure
dynamic relationship
