基于实证研究的人民币东亚区域化路径选择

Study on RMB Regionalization in East Asia Based on Empirical Analysis

为了从获取中国与东亚区域经济联系的相关性,分别测算了一般贸易联系和贸易强度指数、经济周期指数和经济冲击的对称性。根据结果我们得出结论:1.中国推行人民币区域化战略,与东亚主要经济体展开货币合作,可以优先在韩国、马来西亚、泰国铺开;2.中国与东亚深层次的经济联系尚需进一步提升。人民币区域化随着进程的不断推进,还会面临更多的困难和挑战。

In order to estimate the economic connection between China and other East Asian countries,we calculate the trade intensive index,economic cycle index,and the symmetry of economic shocks. Conclusions are as follows：1）RMB regionalization strategy can be carried out first in Korea,Malaysia and Thailand; 2） the deep economic relationship between China and other East Asian Economies should be further enhanced. With the deepening of the RMB regionalization,China will face more troubles and challenges.