什么拉动了我国地方政府债务扩张?——以西部某省为例

What Pulls the Debt Expansion of Local Government in China?——Taking a Western Province as an Example

分税制至今，中国地方政府债务不断扩张，为地方财政风险埋下了极大的隐患。通过实证研究发现：1995-2011年，西部某省地方政府债务增长主要由预算支出拉动，尤其在1998年和2008年实施的两轮积极财政政策作用下更加明显。进一步从支出结构贡献分解来看，真正对地方政府债务具有较大拉动作用的是人员工资，平均贡献率高达51．36％，而民生事业支出仅在积极财政政策下才发挥短期拉动效应，平均贡献率为31．50％，社会管理支出和其它事务支出作用较小且趋于稳定。据此提出相关政策建议。

Since the tax sharing reform, the debts of local governments in China continue to expand ,which makes great dangers for the local fiscal risk. Empirical study shows that： from 1995 to 2011, the growth of a western local government debt is mainly pulled by budget expenditure, especially under the implementation of two positive fiscal policies in 1998 and 2008. From the de- composition of expenditure structure, the staff wages has a greater effect on stimulating the local government debt, with an average contribution rate as high as 51.36%, and people＇s livelihood expenditure only plays a short -term pulling effect under the active fiscal policy, with an average contribution rate of 31.50%. Expenditures on social management and other affairs have smaller and stable effect. In this regard, relevant policy suggestions are proposed.