河北省桃生产周期波动测定及影响因素分析——基于H-P滤波模型

Analysis on Cycle Fluctuation and Influence Factors of Peach Production in Hebei Province Based on H-P Filtering Model

运用H-P滤波模型,对1979-2013年河北省桃总产量和单位面积产量的波动周期进行测定。结果表明,河北省桃总产和单产分别经历了3个周期,平均波动周期均为11.33年。进一步运用AR模型分析了河北省桃生产波动的原因,研究显示,外部因素与内部因素对河北省桃生产的影响比例接近于6∶4,外部因素的影响力略大于内部因素。最后,为河北省桃产业的稳定健康发展提出了对策建议。

H-P filtering model is used to measure the fluctuation of the peach＇s total product and yield of per unit area in Hebei province during 1979-2013. The results show that the peache＇s total product and yield of per unit area in Hebei province have underwent three cycles, the average cycle fluctuation is 11.33 years. The reasons of peach production fluctua- tions in Hehei province are analyzed by using AR model, which show that the proportion of the impact of external factors and internal factors of peach production in Hebei province close to 6：4, the influence of external factors is larger than inter- nal factors slightly. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for the stable and healthy development of peach industry in Hehei province.