上海市“单独两孩”生育政策实施的初步评估及展望

Preliminary Evaluation and Future Perspectives of "Single Permitted Two-Child" Policy in Shanghai

2014年,29 058个上海市户籍育龄家庭申请生育二孩,其中16 639户为单独二孩家庭。文章主要根据上海市2014年二孩生育申请数据,描述再生育申请夫妇的人口、经济与社会基本特征,估算再生育申请的累积概率,预测单独再生育夫妇二孩生育的规模和发展趋势,并利用相关资料分析影响再生育申请的主要因素,对上海市乃至全国全面放开两孩生育政策的可能性和潜在影响进行实证分析与初步研判。结果表明,"单独两孩"政策敏感群体的主要特征为:原籍地是上海本地、受教育程度较高、第一孩是女孩,而生育二孩对家庭经济状况的压力及子女照料能力是影响再生育申请的主要因素。上海市单独再生育申请存在一定的"赶生"现象,但比例较小。文章预测上海市已生育一孩的家庭中有近1/3最终会提出再生育申请。

In 2014,a total of 29 058 couples applied for the permission of the second child,among whom were 16 639 couples who fit the new 'Single Permitted Two-child' policy requirements.Based on the second child application data in 2014,this paper examines the basic characteristics of demographic,economic and social factors of the couples who apply for the second child,estimates cumulative probabilities of them,predicts the size and trend of the two child birth,and analyses possible causes of different fertility behaviour among eligible couples by using relevant information.The paper takes empirical analysis and preliminary analysis for the possibility and the potential impact of fully implementing the second child policy in Shanghai and nationwide.It reveals that couples of native Shanghai residents,with better education and their first child being a girl,are more likely to apply for the birth of the second child.Pressures on family's economic wellbeing and caring capacity for children are the main considerations.The applicants of the second child show somewhat rushing fertility behaviour,but the proportion is small.The paper predicts diat about one third of Shanghai couples with one child will eventually apply for the birth of the second child.