重庆市城镇化演进对耕地面积影响前景预测

Forecast on Prospect about Influence of Urbanization Gradual Progress on Arable Land in Chongqing

为探索城镇化演进对耕地面积变化影响趋势,通过构建城镇化演进Logistic模型,预测2012年-2030年重庆市城镇化水平演进;构建STRIPAT扩展模型测算城镇化对耕地面积边际贡献率,拟合重庆市耕地面积变化前景.研究结果表明:重庆市未来城镇化演进对耕地影响态势不会改变,但是影响强度趋缓,逐步趋近于零.建议遵循城市化演进规律,合理适度发展城镇化,科学制定土地管理政策,严格保护耕地.

In order to explore urbanization evolution trend effect on the change of cultivated land area ,by constructing the evolution of urbanization logistic model predicted 2012-2030 in Chongqing city urbaniza‐tion level evolution ;construction STRIPAT expansion model to measure the urbanization rate of marginal contribution to the area of arable land ,fitting of Chongqing city farming ground prospects for changes in the product .The results show that the trend of the urbanization in the future of Chongqing is not changed , but the intensity of the impact of the impact of the intensity of the slowdown ,gradually approaching zero . We should follow the law of urbanization ,reasonably develop urbanization ,scientifically formulate land management policies ,and protect arable land strictly .