农民进城意愿影响要素实证分析——基于四川省1523份调查问卷

Empirical analyses on influence factors of farmers migration intention to town: Based on 1523 questionnaires in Sichuan Province

文章基于城镇拉力视角,剖析农民进城意愿的影响因素,结合四川省1 523份调查问卷,采用PROBIT回归模型进行了实证分析。结果表明,城镇基本生活条件、城镇生活适应性、技能获取、精神满足和对未来担忧等非经济因素对农民进城决策有显著影响,非经济因素对农民进城的作用依赖于农村家庭的个性特征,包括农村家庭收入水平、家庭主要劳动力受教育状况、平均年龄和现有职业。文章揭示了影响农民进城意愿的关键要素,可为政府制定相关政策提供参考。

The objective of this paper was to illustrate and examine the influence factors of farmers＇ migration inten- tion to town by PROBIT regression model. It was shown that the non-economic factors, such as urban basic living conditions, urban life adaptability, skill acquisition, spiritual satisfaction and worries about the future, had signifi- cant influence on farmers＇ decision. The role of non-economic factors depended on different personality characteristics of rural households, including rural family income level, education condition of the main labor force in family, aver- age age and current occupation. The present study revealed the key factors influencing farmers＇ migrant intention, and thus would provide reference for government policy formulation.