基于关键气象因子的湘北早稻产量动态预报

The Dynamic Prediction of Early Rice Yield Based on Key Meteorological Factors in Northern Hunan

利用湘北地区1987～2011年早稻单产和早稻生育期内旬平均气温、旬降水量、旬日照时数等气象资料,应用统计分析法建立了早稻的气象产量动态预报模型,并进行了预报验证。结果表明,通过分析气象产量与早稻生育期逐旬气象要素相关性,筛选出5月上旬的平均气温和日照时数、5月中旬平均气温、5月下旬日照时数、6月中旬降水量和7月中旬日照时数是影响湘北早稻产量的关键气象因子;基于关键气象因子建立了早稻气象产量动态预报模型。对1988～2009年早稻产量进行了预报验证,平均准确率在91.0%以上。该模型的预测结果基本反映了早稻产量的变化情况。

Based on the data of rice yield, the 10-day data of average air temperature, precipitation, and average sunshine hours in rice＇s growth period from 1987 to 2011 in northern Hunan, a dynamic prediction model was established for rice yield prediction by using statistic method. The results from analyzing the correlation between meteorological yield and meteorological elements showed that average air temperature and sunshine hours in early May, average air temperature in mid-May, sunshine hours in late May, precipitation in the mid-June and sunshine hours in the mid-July were the key meteorological factors of the early rice yield. Based on the key meteorological factors,early rice yield dynamic prediction model was established. Simulation with the model from 1988 to 2009 showed that average accuracy was more than 91.0%. It indicated that the dynamic prediction model could predict the early rice yield more accurate.