影响山西省蔬菜价格波动的因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Fluctuation of Vegetable Prices in Shanxi

为了明确影响山西省蔬菜价格波动的主要因素,以2006~2012年山西省蔬菜生产成本、蔬菜产量、蔬菜播种面积、天气因素、居民收入水平等指标数据为研究对象,采用因子分析方法研究了上述指标在蔬菜价格波动中所起的作用。结果表明,研究所选的5个指标可分为两类,一类为供给因子,包括蔬菜产量、生产成本、蔬菜播种面积和天气因素;第二类为需求因子,包括居民收入水平。综合来看,当前对山西省蔬菜价格起决定作用的还是供给因子。可以从发展农业专业合作社、有效控制生产成本、加强自然灾害预警、有效预测蔬菜需、完善蔬菜信息平台建设等方面采取一定措施进行调整。

In order to clarify main factors leading to the fluctuation of vegetable prices in Shanxi province, the study used the data of several indexes such as vegetable production costs, vegetable yields, vegetable planting areas, weather factors and income levels of residents from 2006 to 2012 in Shanxi province as the research object, and probed into the effects of the indexes mentioned above on the fluctuation of vegetable prices. The results showed that five indicators could be divided into two categories： one referred to factors of supply, including vegetable yields, production costs, vegetable planting areas and weather factors, and the other one was about factors of demand, including income levels of residents. On the whole, factors of supply were playing a decisive role on the vegetable prices in Shanxi province currently. We could make some adjustment by certain measures, such as developing agricultural professional cooperatives, controlling the production cost effectively, strengthening early warning of natural disasters, predicting market demands of vegetables effectively, and perfecting the construction of vegetable information platform.