“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家贸易与能源效率关系研究——基于DEA模型与贸易引力模型的实证研究

A Study on the Relationship between the Trade and Energy Efficiency among the Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt——Based on the DEA and Trade Gravitation Models

"丝绸之路经济带"是中国成为全球大国、重构特定区域内国际秩序的政治战略。区域经济合作是实现途径,能源是重要支柱。文章利用中国与经济带沿线10个贸易伙伴国的面板数据,运用DEA模型测算能源效率,并引入改进的贸易引力模型探索分析经济规模、能源效率、地理距离、国际合作组织等因素对双边贸易的影响。研究表明,对于经济带沿线国家而言,经济规模对双边贸易具有正向影响,而能源效率、地理距离与双边贸易呈现负相关关系。同时,文章通过分析中国与经济带沿线国家的对外贸易商品结构,对实证结果做出了进一步的阐释,尝试对制定长期经贸合作与区域发展相关政策提供借鉴和参考。

The Silk Road Economic Belt is a political strategy for China to become a world superpower and achieve re-structuring the international order in some areas. To realize this strategy, regional economic cooperation is the route and energy is the important pillar. By using the DEA model to analyze the panel data collected from China and its 10 trading partners along the Silk Road Economic Belt, energy efficiency is measured; by using the improved trade gravity model, the impact of economic scale, energy efficiency, geographic distance, influence of international cooperative organizations upon bilateral trades are analyzed. The study shows that for nations along the economic belt, economic scale has a positive impact on bilateral trades, while energy efficiency and geographic distance demonstrate a negative relationship with bilateral trades. At the same time, through analyzing the composition of imported/exported products of the states along the economic belt, including China, further explanations are made in order to facilitate the making of policies to achieve long-term and profitable economic and trade co-operations.