安徽省中季稻生育期高温热害发生规律分析

Regularity of Heat Injury During Whole Growth Season of Middle Rice in Anhui Province

根据安徽省1961-2013年常规气象资料和1980-2011年中稻产量资料,采用数理统计、Morlet小波分析和ArcGIS的空间分析功能,对安徽省各等级高温热害发生时间分布、年际变化、周期性及空间分布规律进行分析。结果表明:(1)1961-2013年,安徽省中季稻生育期高温热害发生频次较高的时段主要集中在7月中、下旬和8月上旬,尤以8月上旬最高,轻、中、重级高温热害平均2.15a、3.81a、4.69a发生1次,且轻度热害发生次数最多;(2)53a来安徽中稻生育期内各级别高温热害发生频次均呈先减少后增加的趋势,其中80年代发生频次最少;(3)各级别高温热害发生次数均有显著的周期性震荡规律,存在48a、28a、12a的变化周期;(4)各级别高温热害发生频次空间分布总体呈南部偏多,并由西南部向周围递减的趋势,尤以安庆最为严重;(5)安徽中稻产量与高温热害频次的相关性并不显著。

Based on the conventional meteorological data from 1961 to 2013 and middle rice yield data from 1980 to 2011 in Anhui province, by using the mathematical statistics, Morlet wavelet analysis and spatial analysis function of ArcGIS, the temporal and spatial variation of rice heat injury with different grades in Anhui province was analyzed. The results showed that the occurrence frequency of heat injury during whole growth season of middle rice concentrated mainly to mid-to-end of July and early August, especially in early August from 1961 to 2013. The slight, moderate and severe heat-injury was occurred every 2.15 years, 3.81 years and 4.69 years, respectively. All grades of heat-injury occurrence frequency showed an increasing trend after decreasing during last 53 years, and the least was in 1980s. All grades of heat injury frequency showed a periodic variation at the rate of 48, 28, and 12 years. The high frequency value was in the southern of Aihui province, especially in Anqing city. However, the correlation between yield of middle rice and heat injury frequency was not significant.