安徽省耕地资源数量的变化及其驱动力

Driving Force of Cultivated Land Quantity Change in Anhui Province

基于安徽省1990-2012年耕地资源变化数据及相关统计资料,采用主成分分析与回归分析,对22年安徽省的城镇化进程与耕地面积变化进行综合评价,并对影响地区耕地资源数量变化的驱动因子进行系统研究。结果表明:1)1990-2012年,安徽省城镇化水平呈持续上升、耕地面积呈显著减少的趋势;2)省域耕地资源数量变化驱动力综合得分呈逐渐增加的趋势,即影响地区耕地资源数量变化的驱动力逐渐加强;3)安徽省城镇化进程集中体现为地区经济发展、城市空间扩张以及城镇人口增加,其中,地区经济发展成为影响耕地资源数量变化的主要驱动因素且呈负相关关系。

Taking the approach combining driving-force and principle component analysis, the authors analyzed the driving factors of cultivated land quantity change in the past 22 years in Anhui Province based on the statistical yearbook from 1990 to 2012. The results showed that cultivated land resources quantity has been a downward trend in Anhui Province from 1990 to 2012 with the urbanization evolution increase. The comprehensive evaluation scores of the driving force of cultivated land quantity change also showed an upward trend which meant the driving force influence of regional cultivated land quantity change grew stronger. The process of urbanization evolution in Anhui Province was mainly reflected in the regional economic development, city spatial expansion and the urban population increase, and then there was a strong negative correlation between the cultivated land resources quantity change and the regional economic development.