基于一次二阶距法的水利运营风险分析

Water Conservancy Operational Risk Analysis Based on FOSM

水利工程项目发生风险的概率较高,因此需要科学化的项目决策,避免或减少风险带来的损失。水利项目风险管理中仍存在一些难点:识别困难、评价误差较大、风险遗漏等。在水利工程中,投标阶段的道德风险、运营阶段的成本、经济效益构成不确定风险。从水利工程风险控制理论的系统安全理论出发,对水利工程运营阶段风险识别方法进行了阐述。随后重点从业主角度出发,利用一次二阶距法对运行阶段风险进行分析,希望为今后水利工程运营阶段业主的风险规避提供帮助。

The probability of water conservancy project risk is higher, so you need to put forward sci- entific project decisions, avoid or reduce the risk of loss. Water conservancy project risk management is still exist some difficulties： identification difficult, error .evaluation, risk missing, etc. Owner plays an important role in water conservancy project, bidding phase of the moral risk, the cost of running stage, the economic benefit of uncertain risks. From the water conservancy project risk control theory of the system safety theory, operation stages of water conservancy project risk identification methods are expounded. Then mainly from the perspective of the owner, the method of using a FOSM of risk analysis, hope for the future water conservancy project operation stage of the owner＇s risk aversion to offer help.