长三角地区工业经济发展与环境污染脱钩研究

Decoupling Effect of Industrial Economic Development and Environmental Pollution in Yangtze River Delta

在借鉴脱钩理论的基础上,运用熵权法和基于IPAT方程的脱钩指数模型,选取工业总产值、工业废水排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量和工业烟尘排放量4个指标,对长三角地区16个地级市2004-2010年工业经济发展与环境污染2个子系统的脱钩关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:在长三角区域经济一体化的大背景下,长三角地区工业经济发展对环境污染的压力逐步减小,2004-2010年该地区的工业经济发展与环境污染实现了未脱钩—相对脱钩—绝对脱钩的过渡过程,未来将持续绝对脱钩的态势,说明长三角地区在重视提高经济发展质量、实现资源环境与经济社会的协调可持续发展方面取得重大成绩。另外,其脱钩效应存在时间和空间差异,受2008年金融危机的影响,脱钩状况出现了局部波动变化。上海市保持稳定的绝对脱钩状况,江苏省东南部有较好的脱钩程度,而浙江省东北部内部差异较大。

Referring to the decoupling theory, an approach for researching the decoupling relationship of industrial economic development and environmental pollution was established by applying the entropy method and the decoupling index model based on the IPAT equation, and four indexes, i.e., gross industrial output value, discharge amount of industrial wastewater, industry sulfur dioxide emission and industry soot emission, were selected. Thereafter, the decoupling relationship in 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta with a time span from 2004 to 2010 was empirically studied, and the results showed that the pressure from the region＇s industrial economic development upon the environment tapered off. Furthermore, decoupling relationship between industrial economic growth and environment pollution tended to enter the transition process of non- decoupling to relative decoupling to absolute decoupling sequentially during the period from 2004 to 2010. It was predicted that development trend towards the absolute decoupling would continue for some time in the future. The result showed that the targets of attaching importance to improving the quality of economic development and realizing the coordinative and sustainable development of resource environment and economic society had been reached, in spite of that there were some fluctuations about its decoupling development in respect to time and space, as a result of the 2008 financial crisis. The evaluation in terms of the regions in the Yangtze River Delta suggested that Shanghai was the best in maintaining absolute decoupling condition, southeast Jiangsu Province was next in decoupling, while Zhejiang Province was not so good especially in the northeast of the Province.