不同地理空间尺度下能源足迹测度及预测比较

Measurement and Prediction of Energy Footprint on Different Geographic Spatial Scales

能源足迹测度分析是揭示能源消费对区域环境压力及可持续发展的重要方法。利用能源足迹碳吸收计量模型及GM(1,1)模型分析中国、长三角地区以及江浙沪三省市2000-2011年能源足迹的动态变化及未来趋势走向。研究发现:(1)全国人均能源足迹低于长三角地区及其江浙沪三省市,在变化速度上,省市增长速率最高,其次是长三角地区,全国人均能源足迹增长速度最低。国家产业政策、世界经济发展趋势和人口因素等是导致差异的主要原因;(2)全国人均能源足迹承载力高于长三角地区及江浙沪三省市,受人均林草地面积变化影响,全国和浙江省的能源足迹人均承载力呈递减状态,而长三角地区和江苏、上海呈现增加趋势;(3)受产业转型升级与能源利用效率的影响,全国能源足迹强度高于长三角地区及其各省市,长三角地区高于浙江省和上海市而低于江苏省;(4)经过预测,未来全国能源足迹供给赤字将逐渐扩大,发展将面临更为严峻的挑战,而长三角地区及江浙沪三省市人均能源足迹会持续增长,但是能源足迹人均承载力和能源足迹强度将会出现下降趋势,表现出良性发展态势。

Energy ecological footprint method is a new approach to evaluate the pressure of energy consumption upon regional environment and sustainability of development. In this paper, the energy footprint model and GM （1,1） model were used to analyze the dynamic changes and the developing trends in the Yangtze River Delta region including Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province and Shanghai City as well as whole China from 2000 to 2011.The study found： that the average per capita energy footprint of China was less than those of the Yangtze River Delta region as a whole and two provinces （Jiangsu ＆ Zhejiang） and Shanghai, respectively; as to the rate of changes, the fastest-growing was the two provinces as well as Shanghai, which was due to affecting factors such as the industrial policies, the tendency of the global economy and demographic factors. Average per capita energy footprint carrying capacity of the country was higher than those of the Yangtze River Delta region and the two provinces as well as Shanghai; however, per capita energy footprint carrying capacity of Zhejiang and China as a whole have showed the decreasing tendency. Affected by the industrial transformation and energy utilization efficiency, the per capita national energy footprint intensity was higher than those of the Yangtze River Delta and the two provinces as well as Shanghai; and according to the prediction the national energy supply deficit will gradually increase in the future, so the development will face more rigorous challenge; while the per capita energy footprint of the Yangtze River Delta region will continue to grow but the per capita capacity and intensity will decline, which reflects a healthier development momentum on the whole in this region.