政府规模与经济增长的Armey曲线效应——陕西经验分析

The Armey Curve Effect of Government Size and Economic Growth:Evidence from Shaanxi Province

本文应用1978-2012年陕西省宏观经济数据来验证政府规模和经济增长之间是否符合Armey曲线,并根据实证分析确定最优政府规模。实证结果表明,陕西省政府规模和经济增长之间是一种倒"U"型的非线性关系,符合Armey曲线,并存在一个最优政府规模,体现为政府支出占GDP的22%。因此,从长期经济发展来看,最好避免过度使用经济刺激政策,在经济转型过程中,要坚持减少政府对市场的干预,将政府规模控制在有效履行政府必要职能的范围内。

This paper attempts to verify if there exists the Armey curve relationship between government size and economic growth in Shaanxi province using data from 1978-2012. The empirical results show that there exists the Armey curve between government size and economic growth and an optimal government size of 22%, a ratio of government spending to GDP. So, in long term of economic development it should have to avoid the excessive use of economic stimulus policies, and In the process of economic transforming, it must be adhered to reduce government intervening market and keep government size in the scope of performing necessary government functions effectively.