资产负债扩张与中国经济增长转型

Growth and Transformation of China's Economy with Expansion of Assets and Liabilities

一个经济中资产和负债的发展是同步的:一部分人的资产是另一部分人的负债,资产与负债的发展对实体经济产生了怎样的影响,是问题的关键。中国宏观经济的资产负债扩张是理解中国过去十几年经济增长的核心要素。通过资产负债扩张同实体经济发展的交互关系,可以将1998—2014年中国宏观经济资产负债扩张划分为"挤入"(crowd in)和"挤出"(crowd out)两个阶段:在前一阶段,资产负债发展对实体经济具有促进作用,在后一阶段,资产负债的发展对实体经济具有危害作用。投资仍然是中国未来经济增长的重要动力之一,中国经济并没有出现投资总量过度,但投资结构性过度主要源于非市场化的投融资体制。投融资体制改革是未来中国经济增长动力转换的关键,通过做实现金流促进传统增长动力模式转型升级,同时依靠彻底的投融资体系改革提高投资效率,形成中国经济新动能。

Assets and liabilities growth synchronously in an economy： some people＇s assets are the other part＇s liabilities, and the impact of assets and liabilities growth on the real economy is the crux of the matter. The expansion of assets and liabilities in China＇s macro-economy is the main essential factor to understand China＇s growth in the past few decades. Based on the interactive relationship between expansion of assets and liabilities and development of the real economy, this paper divides the expansion of China＇s macro-economic expansion of assets and liabilities from 1998 to 2014 logically into two periods of ＂crowd in＂ and ＂crowd out＂. In the first period, the expansion of assets and liabilities has promoted development of the real economy, and in the second period, the expansion of assets and liabilities has certainly harmed the real economy, investment is still one of the crucial driven forces of China＇s future economic growth. However, the non-marketable investment and fund-raising system causes structural over-investment, but not in total numbers. The reform of China＇s investment and fund- raising system is the key point of driven forces change of China＇s future growth. The traditional driven forces of China＇s economic growth have to be transformed and updated through generating stable cash flow, while the innovative transformation of China＇ investment and fund-raising system is required to improve investment efficiency, and create new driven forces of China＇s economic growth.