经济全球化对通胀机制的影响——基于世界主要经济体的分析

The Impact of Economic Globalization on Inflation Mechanism——the Analysis Based on the Main Economies in the World

本文将时变国外产出缺口、进口价格通胀等因素引入菲利普斯曲线模型,采用G18(世界主要经济体,20国集团中18个国家)1993—2012年的季度面板数据对模型进行验证。结果表明,从整体上看,2000年之前全球化因素对于国内通货膨胀的影响并不显著;2000年之后,全球化因素对于国内通货膨胀的影响增强并变为显著正向。对新兴市场而言,进入21世纪其国内产出日益依赖国外负向产出缺口来消化,从而削弱了其内部经济过热拉动通胀的可能性;而对于工业化国家而言,其国内产出与价格联动机制遭削弱,并且受益于低廉进口产品而享受了长期低通胀。这种新的通胀作用机制不仅要求各国央行在应对产出波动与治理通货膨胀时应更重视国际市场供需状况,同时也需各国政府更为精准地针对不同作用渠道、各国不同情况有侧重地应对。

This paper introduces the globalization factors （ global output gap and impart price） into the tradition- al Keynes Phillips curve model. We estimate the model based on quarterly panel data of G18 （a good represen- tative for the world economy） from 1993 to 2012. The empirical shows that, for the whole sample, the global- ization factors don＇t have a significant impact on domestic inflation before 2000. However, those driving forces rise markedly since entering the new century. For NEM countries, their domestic output rehes more on the o- versea demand, thus deducting the probability of a domestic demand- pull inflation. For those industrial coun- tries, however, the connections between their domestic output and inflation are weakened in the globalization process and they benefit from the low- cost impart goods and service. This transformation of inflation dynamic caused by the globalization not only requires cen^al banks to pay more attention on the global supply and de- mand, but also the country authorities to react more accurate to the special factors that affect one country＇s price most.