近五十年登陆海南省的热带气旋统计特征分析

A statistical analysis of landfall tropical cyclone in fifty years in Hainan province

利用《热带气旋年鉴》等资料,统计分析1964—2013年登陆海南省的热带气旋(TC)特征,着重分析TC的年、月、强度、路径、登陆点等特征,为做好海南省海洋预报提供更好的依据。分析结果表明:平均每年登陆海南省的TC有1.7个,登陆频数的年代际呈现增减阶段性转换的变化趋势,登陆频数偏多与偏少年代各约持续25—30 a;TC登陆海南省的频数有明显的季节性特征,夏季和秋季TC登陆频繁,主要集中在7、8、9月,占总登陆频数的62%,其次是10月份,占17.4%,春季TC登陆频数较少,冬季没有TC在海南省登陆;登陆海南省的TC包括热带低压(TD)、热带风暴(TS)、强热带风暴(STS)、台风(TY)、强台风(STY)及超强台风(Super TY),其中STS与TY登陆频数最多,分别占登陆总数的25.2%和32.1%,STS主要集中在7、8月份,占STS总数的77.2%,TY主要集中在9、10月份,占TY总数的46.4%;登陆海南省的TC主要路径是西行型及西北型,所占比率分别为33.3%和31%;在海南省登陆的TC概率最高登陆点是文昌,其次是万宁和三亚,概率最小的是陵水。

To provide a better knowledge of marine forecasting for Hainan Province, based on the data derived from the Tropical Cyclones Year Books （1964--2013）, the significant characteristics of the landfall Tropical Cyclones （TC） in Hainan Province are analyzed, especially the moving paths, intensity, landing sites, decadal and month variations. The results show that the average frequency of the TC landing in Hainan is 1.7 and the frequency of the landing TC have obvious seasonal characteristics, with high frequency in summer and autumn, mainly concentrated on 7, 8, 9 months with 62% proportion of the total landing frequency, followed by October, accounted for 17.4%. While, the frequency landing in spring is less, and without TC landing in winter. The decadal variability of landing frequency present a trend of increasing or decreasing transformation , the increasing or decreasing anomaly lasts approximately 25 to 30 years. The tropical cyclone landing in Hainan Province includes tropical depression （TD）, tropical storm （TS）, strong tropical storm （STS）, typhoon （TY）, strong typhoon （STY） and Super typhoon （Super TY）. The STS and TY have the most landing frequency with a proportion of 25.2% and 32.1% of the total landing number. The landing month of STS is mainly focused on July and August with a proportion of 77.2%, while the landing month of TY has a proportion of 46.4% in September and October. The types of main path are the west type and northwest type, with a proportion of 33.3% and 31%. Wenchang is a candidate place for where the TC most possible land, followed by Wanning and Sanya, and the landing TC in Lingshui keeps the lowest possibility.