基于市场风险缓释的利率市场化研究

The Study of Interest Rate Liberalization Based on Mitigation of Market Risk

利率市场化意味着金融调控由"价格管制、数量调控"向"放开价格、适度规模"转变,市场风险也将在可预见的时间内上升,并对系统性风险产生重要影响。本文构建了反映利率变化与市场风险变动关系的市场风险曲线,并利用DSGE模型模拟了利率变化对主要经济主体源自金融利益的福利水平的影响。结论认为:在当前存、贷款利率变动的有效区间,存款利率放开将对市场风险产生较大冲击,应慎重推进;利率区间管理偏离均衡水平,会加大利率波动对市场风险的影响;利率市场化通过资金成本、金融投资收益等金融利益变化改变经济主体的福利状况,从而将改革的风险成本分担到各经济主体;应建立与风险承担责任相匹配并促进经济主体风险自缓释的利率市场化制度安排。

The interest rate liberalization means that the mode of financial regulation is transforming from ＂price control, quantity control ＂into ＂price liberalization, moderate scale＂. Market risk will rise in the foreseeable period of time and to have a significant impact on the systemic risk. In this paper, we built a market risk curve reflecting the relationship between the changes of interest rate and market risk, using DSGE model to simulate the impact of interest rate changing to the welfare of major economic entities which is based on the financial interests. Our main conclusions are as follows ： The liberalization of deposit interest rate would have a greater impact on market risk and should be carefully promoted in the current effective range of changes in interest rates ; Deviating of the management of interest rate from the equilibrium level exacerbates the impaction of interest rate fluctuations to the market risk; The interest rate liberalization sets up a mechanism of cost - sharing among various kinds of economic agents through the changes of financial interests such as financial cost and investment income ; A corresponding interest rate liberalization mechanism should be established which is risk - related and can promote the agents＇ ability of self - mitigation of risk.