西部省区城镇化、能源消费与经济增长关系研究

The Relationship among Economic Growth, Energy Consume and Urban Rate of Western Provinces in China

本文运用Sims提出的变量自回归模型(VAR模型)方法,结合西部典型省区新疆1971-2012年的城镇化率、能源消费、经济增长三个统计指标的历史数据,形成三变量的VAR模型。该模型分析了新疆经济增长、能源消费、城镇化三者之间的关系,并结合脉冲响应函数、方差分解分析方法动态考察模型中随机因素变动对这些关系的影响,最后得出结论并提出可行性政策建议。

By combining the Vector Auto Regress model which is put forward by Sims in 70s with the development of Xinjiang economics, energy consume and urbanization data of Xinjiang autonomous region from 1978 to 2012, this paper wants to set up the VAR model. The VAR model have analyzed the relationship among these three indexes, after that we used Impulse response function method and variance analyzed method to check the influence of random facts to their relationships, eventually some useful commendations are reached.