碳信用项目风险评估研究

Risk Assessment of Carbon Credit Project

本文构建了中国企业碳信用项目风险评估指标体系,提出基于距离评判和支持向量数据描述的评估模型。实证分析得出:企业碳交易面临信用、监管、生产、市场、政治政策、决策、不可抗力等风险,减排成本和碳排放权初始分配是影响企业参与碳交易的重要指标。模型能够在缺乏完备先验数据条件下有效进行风险评估。最后针对重点风险,提出相关建议。

This paper creates a risk assessment index system of Chinese carbon credit project, and proposes an intelligent model based on distance evaluation and support vector data description （SVDD）. The results reveal that： enterprises face risks of credit, supervision, production, market, policy and decision-making. Cost of carbon emission reduction and carbon emission initial allocation are the most important indices, and the model can identify different conditions of risk automatically without complete projects ＇ data. Finally, aiming at the key risk, this paper proposes efficient suggestions.